International Foundation For Electoral Systems Releases Survey On Ukrainian Political Attitudes

WASHINGTON, DC -- As Ukraine prepares for the January 2010 presidential elections, the newest survey released today by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) finds that a precipitous decline in satisfaction with socio-political conditions and political elites in the country since the Orange Revolution are driving factors in the presidential race.

Presidential candidate, pro-Moscow Viktor Yanukovych.

The survey finds that Viktor Yanukovych of the Party of Regions is likely to receive the most votes in the first round January 2010 presidential poll.

The annual survey conducted by the world's leading election-assistance and democracy promotion NGO showed that 31% of Ukrainians say they will vote for Viktor Yanukovych in the first round of the election and 19% for Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

Other candidates with significant percentages include Serhiy Tygypko (4.8%), Arseniy Yatsenyuk (4.7%), Petro Symonenko (3.8%), President Viktor Yushchenko (3.5%), and Volodomyr Lytvyn (2.8%).

Given the likelihood that no candidate is likely to win the presidency outright in the first round, in a possible second round matchup, Yanukovych would top Tymoshenko 42% versus 28% with 18% saying they would vote against both.

In a matchup between Yanukovych and Yatsenyuk, Yanukovych would have the support of 42% versus 23% for Yatsenyuk and 22% against both.

The survey also finds that although Yanukovych is viewed negatively by a majority of Ukrainians, his positive rating is the highest of all presidential candidates--a factor in his lead for the presidency.

When rating Yanukovych, 55% view him negatively while 42% view him positively. For Tymoshenko, those numbers are 67% and 30%. The data for other leading candidates: Yatsenyuk (56%, 32%), Tygypko (50%, 32%), Lytvyn (60%, 31%), Symonenko (69%, 22%), and Yushchenko (83%, 13%).

Ukrainians continue to have pessimistic assessments of the socio-political situation in the country. Seventy-four percent believe Ukraine is on a path toward instability and more than nine in ten Ukrainians are dissatisfied with the economic (96%) and political situation (92%) in the country.

It follows that economic and governance concerns dominate the list of issues Ukrainians would like the winning presidential candidate to address once he or she takes office.

The survey was conducted by IFES' F. Clifton White Applied Research Center (ARC). The data in this survey is representative of the national population of Ukraine. The national-level data has a margin of error of plus/minus 2.5%. All interviews were conducted in Ukrainian and Russian by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

Source: International Foundation for Electoral Systems


UkrToday said…
This survey is more in line expected election outcome. It is consistent with most other public opinion polling.

Incumbent president Viktor Yushchenko is placed below 4% and well behind other "Orange" coalition candidates.

A recent poll published by the President's think tank had placed Yushchenko above Yulia Tymoshenko. The poll was obviously fraudulent and lacking credibility, raising concern that Yushchenko may seek to rig the election in some form.

With 30 days remaining before the January 17 election Yushchenko remains in an unwinnable position. It is unlikely that there will be any significant change between now and the date of the first round election.

we can expect that Yushenko will be putting pressure on Yatseniuk who has lost support to withdraw in his favor.

With Our Ukraine standing four candidates in the presidential ballot, each one competing against Yushchenko, it is unlikely that Yushchenko could improve his position let alone take poll position. If his own party is not behind him them he can not survive.

The last thing Ukraine needs is an other five years of Yushchenko's failed policies of division and instability.