Our Ukraine would score 20% of the vote, while Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna would collect 10.5%, according to the poll, released by the Razumkov Center, an independent think tank.
Since many parties would fail to overcome the 3% barrier, their scorings will be spread among those groups that eventually get seated in Parliament.
This means Yushchenko's and Tymoshenko's parties, although collecting an overall of 30.5% of the votes, would jointly get 52.1% of seats in Ukraine’s 450-seat Parliament.
"Today's scoring still guarantees the pro-government groups to create the majority in the new Parliament," Yuriy Yakimenko, an analyst with Razumkov Center, said. "However, their strength is decreasing and that opens ways for new political combinations."
Our Ukraine enjoyed 31.6% popularity in May, while Tymoshenko's party had 15.5%, which shows that popular support for the two parties has been dwindling, apparently due to skyrocketing prices of gasoline and sugar, and some other factors, analysts said.
The next general election is due in March 2006 and the winner would be able to claim the post of the prime minister according to changes to the constitution that come into force no Jan. 1, 2006.
The Party of Regions, an opposition group led by former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, is the second most popular party and would score 14.2% of the vote, according to the poll. The party had 16.4% support in May.
Other parties that may successfully clear the 3% barrier include the Communist Party (5.5%), the Socialist Party (4.2%) and the People's Party, led by Parliament Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, which would collect 4.1%, according to the poll.
Tymoshenko has been seeking to set up a majority in Parliament as soon as in September to approve a number of important economic and political reforms.
Tymoshenko will seek to push Parliament to pass her 2006 budget and also to approve a bill that would increase the barrier to 5% from 3%, barring weak parties from the next Parliament.
Increasing the barrier would put pressure on the Communists, the Socialists and Lytvyn's group as their ratings are hovering at between 5% and 4%.
This pressure would probably fuel opposition to the bill and create challenges for Tymoshenko in herdrive to set up the majority and could also effect debate over the budget, analysts said.
Some 2,011 respondents throughout Ukraine were surveyed by the Razumkov Center between Aug. 5 and Aug. 12 for the opinion poll, whose margin of error is 2.3%.
Source: Ukrainian Journal